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Thursday, September 27, 2007

A Short History of Nearly Everything



  • Paperback: 544 pages
  • Publisher: Broadway (September 14, 2004)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 076790818X
  • ISBN-13: 978-0767908184
  • Product Dimensions: 9 x 6.1 x 1 inches


Of course this is not a book that can contain the 'nearly everything' Bill Bryson titled the book after. But he manages to squeeze the many milestones in history into this book. The flow of the book has kinks as Bryson jumps across time frames, trying to group his narration under subject titles.

Bryson captures the macro and the micro, the ancient past and the forward-looking future, the absolutely normal to the quirky and the most famous to the most obscure. He is funny with his words and his traveling experience add great depth to the book.

The flow of the book goes like this (with descriptors of what interested me)
  1. Universe
    He puts the concept of space in perspective by comparing distances and sizes.

  2. Solar System and the Earth
    His mention of what is beneath us is intriguing as we know more about space than the earth's core. The concept of a planet is actually very hazy. And of course, it's very difficult to find planets sometimes, even in our own solar system.

  3. Science as a whole
    He gives a good history of the many scientists especially the lesser known ones. The characters were elucidated well and it can be seen that science was influenced much by politics as well. People are famous more by circumstances than their work.

  4. Measurement and Astronomy

  5. Geology
    The ice age is supposed to be the norm for earth. It is very interesting to note that whatever we do now as absolutely little impact on the earth in the long run as nature correct itself. Study of the tectonic plates and its theory is fairly recent only. The ice age might be a trigger in the formation of the current land mass locations and hence shaping evolution at the same time.

  6. Chemistry

  7. Physics

  8. Einstein's Era

  9. Life
    Earth is actually a very dangerous place to live in, in the long run. We can be prone to asteroid collisions, solar flares removing the earth's magnetic field (and cosmic rays will shred us to pieces), huge volcanic eruptions (one to be due soon) etc. But we can be incredibly resilient as well. At least life is. Life is never wiped out since its inception; only species are. And extinctions are part and parcel of life, pardon the pun. Life is too much varied to be recorded down at all.
    There was good mention on the seas and its great unknowns and possibilities as well. The learning point on the currents shed light on how life thrived in some parts and how it balances natural forces.

  10. Evolution
    The more complex we are, the more vulnerable to extinction we will be. Evolution is shaped by the many changes in Earth's history. We evolve to suit the current environment; humans now try to control the environment to ensure our survival. Our DNA is super efficient despite it being 97% garbled in content. And everyone of us are different genetically that we can create new species if given time to.

  11. Humans and our history
    Our history in the perspective of the Earth's history is incredibly short. And what we do now will have little impact on the earth in the long run.

I think i would find it hard to summarize this book since in essence, it's a summary already. Good book for general knowledge.

Thursday, September 6, 2007

The Bull Hunter



Hardcover:
240 pages
Publisher: Wiley (June 3, 2005)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0471719838
ISBN-13: 978-0471719830
Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.2 x 1 inches

Denning's book focuses on getting returns not only from an uptrending market but also from a downtrending one. His definition of a bull hunter is basically an opportunist. It is a plethora of opportunities in today's world because of the introduction more sophisticated market instruments like options, ETFs etc. Denning also highlights the trend of the global economy and the gradual shift of wealth growing from the West to the East.

Fundamentally, wealth can only be generated by means of an increase of capital intensive investments like manufacturing and infrastructure. This forms the basis in powering the economy. Services, financials and IT all follows the growth of capital intensive development. When the latter exceeds the former i.e. financial activity far exceeds real economic activity, a bubble might be in development. This can be seen when capital(financial) markets capitalization exceeds GDP.

The decline of England to US and currently, US to China is due to several factors. The latter's factors currently being
1) Increase of consumption leading to increase of trade deficit
2) An aging population
3) Lesser tangible assets

The 4 threats US is facing is
1) depreciating dollar
2) housing issues
3) increasing debt and
4) obligations to aging population

Denning advises focus on infrastructure development in the emerging markets like China and India. This translates to an increase in demand for oil and gas and other resources like food commodities.

His case on China:
1) China is smart enough to let foreigners build the capital/infrastructure in the country
2) There is a demographic danger in a sense that migration from the rural to urban poses a huge challenge for the politicians.
3) He advocates buying Western companies doing business in China instead of US-listed china companies due to regulations and risks involved.
4) strong political risk with Taiwan

His case on India: (1 billion populations)
1) The economy is domestically driven; self-sustaining
2) Huge political risk with Pakistan
3) Needs foreign investment to grow like China
4) Movement from rural to urban can only be achieved by intensive investments in infrastructure and transport.

Thoughts for equity focus investors:
1) Commodity markets esp food
2) money migration from the West to the East
3) Global economy alignment due to a debt-burdened US dollar.

Strategies for tomorrow's market
1) Look towards emerging markets and using ETFs
2) Looking at the rule of 3 - telco, financial, energy resources
3) Dollar and foreign trade - look at companies where the sector is exporting and contributing to surplus' of the country. For US, this includes chemicals, aerospace, scientific instruments as they are difficult to replicate.

Benefits of ETFs
1) Diversification (in sector)
2) Focus (on growing markets)
3) Eliminate fund manager risk
4) All-day and strategic trading
5) Low cost - tax efficiency, low fees, no minimum investment
6) Transparent holdings

A pretty good book outlining the trends in the future.
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