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Sunday, July 8, 2007

Blink



Paperback: 320 pages
Publisher:
Back Bay Books (April 3, 2007)
Language:
English
ISBN-10:
0316010669
ISBN-13:
978-0316010665

Similar to his documentary style in Tipping Point, Gladwell discusses the power of the subconscious snap judgments.

Does having more information mean having more power? It doesn't seem so. His discussion concludes that information-overload can lead us to make worse decisions than making snap judgments. This is because we often absorb excessive and unnecessary information that confounds with the relevant ones that help us to make the correct decision. Pondering and over-analyzing can confuse us more often than not. The skill here is to know how to filter the information.

Experts in different fields come about from long term exposure to their subject matter. They filter information effectively and efficiently because they have 'trained' themselves to do so. Exposure develops expertise.

A common example most can relate too for the above 2 points: Driving. It would be almost impossible for anyone to take account of all these at anyone time when driving - action of the hand on the gear, sequence of checking the mirrors, which leg on the clutch and the accelerator, how deep to breathe, talking, steering the wheel etc. If we micromanage all these actions to the detail, information overload would make us really lousy drivers. But we drive 'instinctively' and filter all the little details, it would so much more natural and comfortable to drive.

Gladwell also talks about how we are primed to do certain things because our subconscious takes over. We easily change our minds in different contexts and we process information differently between the short run and the long term. Long term exposure develops unconscious associations and guides our future thinking and filtering processes.

The book is peppered with other interesting information. One I remember is that there should not be any contempt in marriages.

I conclude that after reading this book, there seems as though there is nothing I can change. I can't think faster, or think without thinking. But the awareness of such helps me to be more cautious of my decisions, and that snap decision-making can be very good as well.

Christ The Lord - Out of Egypt



Mass Market Paperback: 368 pages
Publisher:
Fawcett; Reprint edition (October 31, 2006)
Language:
English
ISBN-10:
0345436830
ISBN-13:
978-0345436832

This novel gives a perspective to a young Jesus. There were few references to how Jesus lived when he was a child; the gospels have a huge void in Jesus' life between the age of 8 to 33. Anne Rice tries to fill the void by telling a tale as close as possible to historical texts and references.

This book only covers a year of his age 7. It's very interesting how Rice paints a picture of the holy family and its extended members as well.

Rice gives a touching testimony on her faith journey while researching for this novel.

A good read for reflection.

Monday, June 11, 2007

The Tipping Point



Paperback: 304 pages
Publisher:
Back Bay Books; Reprint edition (January 7, 2002)
Language:
English
ISBN-10:
0316346624
ISBN-13:
978-0316346627

This book talks about how social epidemics occur. It applies to fashion trends, crime rates, technology adoption etc. It is particularly interesting to note how it can affect the results of marketing strategies and ‘tipping’ your sales to super-volumes.

Gladwell highlights 3 rules of social epidemics. (1) The Law of the Few, (2) Stickiness Factor and (3) the Power of Context.

The Law of the Few highlights 3 types of people who contribute most to the ‘tipping’ due to their characteristics – the connectors (social glue), mavens (data banks) and salesmen. Connectors are people who have extensive networks (especially to influential others) and most people can somehow link back to these few people within their own networks. Mavens (educators and helpers) are informational experts in their own fields and exert a considerable force in the markets because they pass on information to others. Salesmen (persuaders) are excellent non-verbal communicators who convinces others of the information.

The Stickiness factor is about the product/information itself. It is about creating a connection between the product and the people, getting them involved emotionally. It is also about presentation, practicality and being personal to the target audience. One thing that still sticks to many is Sesame Street, even to adults.

The Power of Context reveals that events are largely shaped by environment. Symbolism is key. Even the smallest things affect action due to what they represent. They give cues to people. The Zimbardo Prison experiment is a good example given. It also sheds light on how people can be so different with other groups of people and in different situations. Organisations may like to take note the human capacity to handle relationships for effectiveness.150 is the best maximum size for a ‘close-knit’ group for most to know each other.

There were numerous interesting examples the book tells to illustrate the concepts. Definitely an excellent read.

Thursday, May 3, 2007

Technical Analysis of Financial Markets




Hardcover: 576 pages

Publisher: Prentice Hall Press; Subsequent edition (January 4, 1999)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0735200661

ISBN-13: 978-0735200661

This highly academic book covers technical analysis almost in its entirety. It has taken me several weeks and 40 over pages of notes to record down what I have garnered from this text. Murphy has certainly written a great educational text despite it being published a few years back.

The following are the chapters within the book itself and some inadequately brief descriptions:

  1. Philosophy of Technical Analysis
    • The basics with an argument against fundamental analysis
  2. Dow Theory
    • The beginning of stock analysis
  3. Chart Construction
  4. Basics Concepts of Trend
    • Trends can be relative at different points of a chart so trend analysis is more of an art than rocket science.
    • Volume plays a huge role in trends
  5. Major Reversal Patterns
    • Pre-requisite is to have prior trend
    • Many patterns and can often be misinterpreted
  6. Continuation Patterns
    • Made up of triangles
    • A resting pause in trends
  7. Volume and Open Interest
    • Volume precedes price
    • Increasing volume suggests continuing trend
  8. Long Term Charts
    • Not for trading purposes
  9. Moving Averages
    • Best for trending markets and worst for sideways/choppy market
    • Use for signaling a change of trend
  10. Oscillators and Contrary Opinion
    • Best in non-trending markets, especially for end of market moves
  11. Point and Figure Charting
    • Pure study of price movement
  12. Japanese Candlesticks
    • Trend must be determined before interpreting Japanese candlesticks
    • Has many reversal and continuity patterns
  13. Elliot Wave Theory
    • Important factors to note are pattern, ratio and time
    • Characterized by 5-wave advance and 3-wave decline
    • Each Wave is characterized by a smaller wave
  14. Time Cycles
    • Longer term – more than 2 years
    • Intermediate term – 9 to 26 weeks
    • Short (trading) term – 4 weeks
  15. Computers and Trading Systems
  16. Money Management and Trading Tactics
  17. Intermarket Analysis
    • Cascade effect: Currency affects commodities, which affects bonds, which affects stocks
  18. Stock Market Indicators
    • The more market averages move together, the stronger the trend
  19. Putting it all together
    • A checklist is made to systematically analyze the market and to facilitate decision making
  20. Appendix
    • Advance Technical Indicators
    • Market Profile
    • The Essentials of Building a Trading System
    • Continuous Future Contracts

Anyone who wants a well-rounded picture of technical analysis is highly recommended to read this book. Just be warned that it is not for the leisure-reader or the light-hearted.

The Makings of an Asian Entrepreneur



Paperback: 120 pages

Publisher: Prentice Hall (April 2004)

ISBN-10: 9812446834

ISBN-13: 978-9812446831

Kenny Yap is the executive chairman and managing director of Qian Hu Corporation Ltd, listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. The family-run fish business is diversified but is most famous for its ornamental fish.

This book proves that a family-run business can be successful if it is well-managed and driven by passion. Kenny mentions the following as the qualities that keep the family business going:

  1. Define roles and responsibilities
  2. Everyone contributes and works
  3. Communicate frequently, both formally and informally
  4. Get in-laws out of the picture
  5. Passion and drive
  6. Passing down of family values and house rules
  7. Be strict and firm, yet patient
  8. A succession plan that need not include the next generation

Kenny peppers his book with comics and nostalgic photographs. His Chinese sayings give it a truly Asian touch. He mentions about the initial failures and about the balances the business has to make. They include family and work life, profiting and social responsibility, crisis and opportunities embedded in them, the decision to take the business public etc.

He places much importance in

  1. Education
  2. Networking especially with the government and the community
  3. Harnessing the media
  4. Being transparent and accountable
  5. Giving back to the community

There was much advice given on being an entrepreneur, taking a company public as well as expanding a business abroad. The biggest difference is his opinion on having friends and family in the business. I figure that their success in this is their ability to communicate and work things out.

Finally, Kenny ends off with ‘fishy’ and insightful parallels of business management with different types of ornamental fishes.


Friday, April 27, 2007

Rich Dad's Prophecy

Paperback: 304 pages

Publisher: Warner Business Books; Reprint edition (January 2004)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0446690341

ISBN-13: 978-0446690348

Robert Kiyosaki’s book links the impending US market crash to the nation’s 401(K) law. Within the next 20 years, the law encouraging the current way of preparing for retirement would be unsustainable. As the baby-boomers get older and retire, they would withdraw their investments from the stock market, causing a huge demand deficit and hence causing a crash. Kiyosaki also relates well to the changing demographics with the coming crash.

Kiyosaki urges us to start ‘building our arks’ for the future. His safest bet is on financial education. Paper-assets-diversification is for people who don’t have time to educate themselves financially. But if you are a savvy investor, the way to go is concentration. Concentration amplifies the returns due to the risk but education reduces the risk. The only diversification we should do is education and between asset classes. Kiyosaki also advises us to learn to start small and to build our own businesses.

He challenges our financial assumptions and draws our attention to the CASHFLOW Quadrant.

The trends are predicted to occur in the near future are:

  1. Millions will be destitute in their old age.
  2. Increasingly expensive medical care
  3. Increased terrorism
  4. Japan will be on the brink of collapse and depression due to demographics and culture.
  5. China will become the largest economy
  6. The world population will continue to age.
  7. Wall Street obsolescence
  8. Decline of the huge corporations

The controls over one’s Ark

  1. Self – know your financial status and be educated
  2. Emotions – the 3 levels of controlling thought
  3. Excuses
  4. Vision – lookout for emerging technologies and declining (huge, existing and replaceable) technologies
  5. Rules
  6. Advisors
  7. Time (ultimately self)
  8. Destiny

This book is a good read and is simple for any beginner who is interested in embarking on a quest for his/her own ark.

My Story - Lim Goh Tong

Paperback: 188 pages

Publisher: Pelanduk Pubns Sdn Bhd (December 30, 2004)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 9679788598

ISBN-13: 978-9679788594

This book is an inspiring story of one who carved his own destiny in construction, real estate, entertainment and the casino industry. Lim Goh Tong is renowned for many ‘firsts’ in Malaysia and even Malaysia. This biography charts his life-story with touching poignancy and motivates any reader to conquer any life obstacles to achieve what he/she wants.

The chapters records Lim Goh Tong’s life according to his …

Beginnings – birth and background

Formative years in business – life in China then in Malaya

Family

Mining ventures

Construction projects

Most renowned project – Genting Highlands

Diversification – into real estate, entertainment especially Star Cruise

Succession

Most people, who would associate him most with Malaysia’s Genting Highlands, would be pleased and inspired to know that Lim Goh Tong has made many other significant contributions which we cannot dream anyone could achieve in a lifetime.

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